Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.393029 2.545927 2.708307 2.894406 3.102809 3.330201 3.598731
2025-05-04 2.202473 2.416467 2.656069 2.947219 3.295659 3.704937 4.230921
2025-05-11 2.041325 2.284568 2.566540 2.923132 3.370554 3.925857 4.688917
2025-05-18 1.922570 2.184443 2.496256 2.903272 3.434120 4.124547 5.131632
2025-05-25 1.823926 2.097586 2.430567 2.876741 3.478084 4.292948 5.548169
2025-06-01 1.740492 2.021996 2.370841 2.848904 3.512098 4.444735 5.956966
2025-06-08 1.680986 1.971585 2.338012 2.851200 3.583678 4.653191 6.483545
2025-06-15 1.639811 1.941288 2.327980 2.881445 3.694697 4.929904 7.172294
2025-06-22 1.574866 1.876219 2.267288 2.835496 3.687679 5.019378 7.546199
2025-06-29 1.514523 1.814175 2.206979 2.785263 3.668442 5.084539 7.884509
2025-07-06 1.454005 1.749235 2.139375 2.719853 3.619592 5.093326 8.111314
2025-07-13 1.433029 1.736244 2.142281 2.757133 3.734194 5.394325 9.013139
2025-07-20 1.416831 1.729488 2.154098 2.809364 3.879481 5.774387 10.221696
2025-07-27 1.399371 1.720091 2.161427 2.854856 4.017627 6.163064 11.604983
2025-08-03 1.362856 1.682608 2.126324 2.831611 4.034896 6.317152 12.430720
2025-08-10 1.330044 1.649058 2.095344 2.812741 4.057667 6.485062 13.367997
2025-08-17 1.297553 1.614791 2.061783 2.787565 4.066523 6.624467 14.283272
2025-08-24 1.266658 1.581759 2.028682 2.761145 4.070594 6.753830 15.233392
2025-08-31 1.245119 1.561386 2.013606 2.763324 4.127927 7.011852 16.804370
2025-09-07 1.231579 1.552017 2.014587 2.792029 4.238098 7.412999 19.257477
2025-09-14 1.200643 1.516399 1.974187 2.748417 4.203013 7.454564 20.164237
2025-09-21 1.170147 1.480657 1.932488 2.700712 4.156427 7.461440 20.928899
2025-09-28 1.137442 1.440931 1.883539 2.638548 4.076832 7.374135 21.173006